Curbing Global Energy Demand Growth: The Energy Productivity Opportunity In-depth sector case studies covering buildings, transportation, and industries highlight how the right policies and investments in existing technologies that yield an internal rate of return of 10 percent or higher could contribute to a reduction in global energy demand growth by at least half to 2020.
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Chapter 1: Energy Productivity: The Key to Curbing Global Energy Demand Growth
This chapter explores the concept of energy productivity—the level of output we achieve from our use of energy. It also describes MGI's energy demand model, which takes a detailed look at each of the main end-use segments in the world's largest economies to map the current global demand for energy and how it will accelerate with current policies.
Chapter 2: Policies to Capture the Energy Productivity
MGI discusses the barriers against higher energy productivity, assesses the opportunities for removing them in each end-use segment, and examines the implications for policymakers.
The residential sector is not only the largest single energy end-use sector, accounting for one-quarter of global demand; it is also where the largest energy productivity opportunities are waiting to be seized. Already planned policies will help moderate the sector's energy demand growth by an amount equal to 15 percent of consumption in 2020. But additional measures, strictly enforced, could boost energy productivity and cut 2020 demand by a further 21 percent.
Global energy demand from the commercial sector—including office and retail buildings, hotels and restaurants, and buildings used for schools and hospitals—will maintain its current share of total energy demand of some 10 percent. The commercial sector could cut its 2020 demand for energy by 20 percent compared with MGI's base case if available energy productivity opportunities are captured.
The road-transportation sector's energy demand is the most sensitive to oil prices. Overall, the available energy productivity opportunities in the sector stand at 6.5 million barrels per day versus base-case 2020 fuel demand. A large proportion of consumers worldwide are shielded from changes in the oil price by subsidies, leaving room for substantial energy productivity improvement opportunities.
The global air-transport industry accounts for only 2.2 percent of worldwide energy demand and 6.6 percent of the global call on petroleum products. Nevertheless, it will post the strongest demand growth of any energy end-use sector. Options for reducing air-transport energy demand are limited as they require reducing air travel or consumer comfort by increasing the number of seats on planes.
MGI's analysis of industrial end-use energy demand focuses on three major segments: selected petrochemicals (ethylene and its derived products, nitrogenous fertilizers, and chlorine-caustic), steel, and pulp and paper. Together they cover 31 percent of current global industrial energy demand, and account for close to 50 percent of the energy demand growth MGI projects to 2020.
Slideshow Explores the top five ways to capture the energy productivity opportunity. Launch Slideshow
Is Energy Efficiency the Answer? The Future of Climate Policy in the U.S. Diana Farrell presents the findings of MGI's report at a New America Foundation and the Climate Group event, which featured a keynote by U.S. Governor Bill Richardson and a panel of policy and corporate experts on energy efficiency. Read more and view the video on the New America Foundation Web site
The case for investing in energy productivity Additional annual investments in energy productivity of $170 billion through 2020 could cut global energy demand growth by at least half while generating average internal rates of return of 17 percent. Such outlays would also achieve significant energy savings and cuts in greenhouse gas emissions. Read more
Leapfrogging to higher energy productivity in China By taking advantage only of currently existing technologies that pay for themselves, China could further its ongoing efforts and reduce total energy demand in 2020 by as much as 23 percent. Lower energy demand would also mean that China could cut its projected oil imports by up to 15 percent and its CO2 emissions by at least 20 percent by 2020. Read more
Wasted energy: How the U.S. can reach its energy productivity potential By capturing the potential available from existing technologies, the United States could cap U.S. energy consumption, as well as its greenhouse gas emissions, at today's levels. Read more
What Is Energy Productivity? Learn more about this concept and how it applies to policy goals. Read more
