What investment is needed for the energy transition? How can governments and organizations navigate its impact on jobs, economic growth, and livelihoods?
Often, the data, tools, and modeling frameworks required to answer these questions, make informed decisions, and fully grasp the broader impacts, are not comprehensive.
That’s where the CTIF comes in. The Climate Transition Impact Framework (C-TIF) was developed by McKinsey Sustainability in consultation with 70+ organizations to provide a framework, modeling approach, and quantitative fact base. This tool equips decision-makers with a holistic view of the transition’s impacts on people to help leaders work towards just, equitable, and inclusive shift.
Using the framework, a country can apply its data, and see the impact of a policy on, say, jobs or electricity prices. On that basis, decision makers can set priorities, build support, and take purposeful action.
The C-TIF quantifies the socioeconomic impacts of different transition pathways to support more sophisticated transition planning by incorporating more than 70 metrics along these five dimensions:
- Affordable energy access
- Lived environment and health
- Investment requirements
- Jobs impact
- Growth and competitiveness
C-TIF ran the numbers for 15 countries, based on two climate scenarios devised by the Network for Greening the Financial System. While such modelling is never perfect, its value is in highlighting important directions and trends. In one scenario, for example, the pathway to net-zero could drive higher electricity costs relative to current policies in 12 of them and more muted GDP growth in eight—but that these effects basically disappeared by 2050. In 11 of the countries, the transition creates more jobs than are lost. In this way, the framework illuminates the socioeconomic trade-offs, which allows decision makers to create plans that maximize benefits and manage burdens.
Over 70 organizations, including the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS), have contributed to the development of CTIF, from its launch at COP28 with over 40 climate leaders, through discussions at COP29 during our Indonesia Green Growth Roundtable, and to Davos, where we convened ministers and corporate leaders to discuss how the public and private sector can work together to accelerate climate action.
To learn more, join us for an exclusive webinar on CTIF on April 24, where we will share key takeaways from the report and illustrative findings for 15 countries.