News headlines to watch for in 2023

Q. What is one news story you think we will hear more of in 2023?

A. In 2023, we will hear more about the Southeast Asian economy. Southeast Asian nations are fast becoming a vibrant economy and growing to become important bases for manufacturing in the region. As China will be dealing with the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, tensions with the United States, and other economic challenges, the rate of growth in Southeast Asia may become more obvious in the year ahead.

Q. What are you optimistic and worried about in 2023?

A. The global economic outlook looks bleak. We will see the global economy slowing more in 2023. Thus, a sense of hope and optimism will open the door to those who are competitive and innovative enough. The near-recession economy in 2023 will create opportunities for those who ride on the wave of change to achieve greater success. Korean companies will be looking to innovate and reinvent themselves, not only to survive, but to thrive in the future.

Q. What is one news story you think we will hear more of in 2023?

A. If 2022 was the year in which the United States made bold moves to seize the initiative in its competition with China in critical technologies, including semiconductors and EV batteries, 2023 will be the year in which we learn more about China’s response. The Biden administration has implemented the CHIPS Act, the Inflation Reduction Act, and expansive chip export controls—how Beijing reacts will shape the global economy for decades to come.

Q. What are you optimistic and worried about in 2023?

A. I am both optimistic and worried about the same theme, namely how Asian businesses execute their green transition. In South Korea, the country with which I am most familiar, leading companies have made bold announcements and issued ambitious targets—in part because of the pressure they have been put under by Western customers and regulators. But the country itself, which for decades has subsidized its industry with cheap energy derived from fossil fuels, remains behind the curve, especially on renewables. Korean business has a remarkable capacity for innovation and reinvention, but the country itself will need to show greater urgency if Korean companies are to meet their commitments.

Q. What is one news story you think we will hear more of in 2023?

A. The big business story will be the energy transition. With India’s Reliance and Adani making big bets on renewables, you know the shift is underway. Energy companies the world over are mapping out their paths to lower emissions. Uncovering the winners and losers in the clean energy push will keep journalists busy in 2023—and for years to come.

Q. What are you optimistic and worried about in 2023?

A. I am optimistic about decarbonization ventures. There is so much money coming into this space from private capital, state players, and multilateral institutions. Some efforts will fail but there are a lot of smart people working on new technologies and supply chains that will take us along the road. On the whole, though, I think 2023 is going to be a tough year and GDP forecasts will continue to be revised down. China opening up will help but it’s got a big COVID-19 hump coming up. European monetary authorities and the Federal Reserve are still raising rates and the real economic impact is just beginning.

Q. What is one news story you think we will hear more of in 2023?

A. Fifth generation (5G) will be the single most important business news conversation of 2023—from the single wholesale network debate, to the possible spectrum allocation, to mass adoption by users. This will be the defining moment in Connect Malaysia.

Q. What are you optimistic and worried about in 2023?

A. I’m optimistic about seeing targeted subsidies, wealth redistribution, and a widening tax base for Malaysia. However, on the flipside, issues to watch will be income inequality, capital market shrinking, inflation rate increasing, and fiscal mismanagement.

Q. What is one news story you think we will hear more of in 2023?

A. Even though it is still too early to tell, we probably will often hear about the maneuvers of a number of countries and business entities in the Asian region to adopt green technology and the green economy in 2023. A number of breakthroughs from the regulatory market and new renewable energy technologies will appear in many media headlines. The year 2023 will only be the beginning of clean energy competition between business entities or countries, especially in the Asia region.

The first nations or businesses that are ready to establish a head start in 2023 may lead the green industry value chain over the next years. Through close cooperation and investment from Chinese and South Korean producers of EV battery manufacturers, I believe Indonesia has great knowledge of the industrial value chain.

Quoting Francis Bacon, “Knowledge is Power.”

Q. What are you optimistic and worried about in 2023?

A. I am optimistic that the energy transition program will be more concretely written in media headlines in 2023. This means that a number of breakthrough regulations, investments, and strategic cooperations in the development of new and renewable energy will be implemented—in the midst of competition between business entities or countries—to dominate the clean energy supply chain.

However, there is a concern about the existing conflict between Russia and Ukraine that will persist through 2023. Moreover, worries about the potential for conflict in Eastern Europe extending to the Asian region will also correct the optimism I mentioned.

Last, but not least, concerns about the trade in gas and crude oil will also persist through 2023, which could temper hope for Asia’s energy transformation.

Q. What is one news story you think we will hear more of in 2023?

A. China’s easing of COVID-19 restrictions is a news story that we can expect to hear more of in 2023. As China’s purchasing power is so high, its impact will be on a global scale and particularly affect Asia. Asia can expect more investment from China, and more Chinese tourists will return to travel.

A point to note here is that there is a high degree of uncertainty surrounding China, as the government has absolute control. Nevertheless, any changes made by China can have a significant impact and I believe many industries, such as luxury goods and property, are closely monitoring the situation.

Q. What are you optimistic and worried about in 2023?

A. A positive sign is that in 2023 inflation will ease, which will benefit the world economy—even though this was unfortunately a result of the interest-rate hikes. Many countries have experienced the recession, but not all sectors have been affected by it as demand has come back, especially in industries such as food, tourism, and service, where the signs of recovery are stronger in 2023. As for Thailand, we will also see its economic recovery.

Another news theme that I’m optimistic about is the transformation of many sectors into sustainable businesses. We can see that green finance is blossoming in Asia and sustainability practices are apparent at the corporate level, but we have not yet seen this much at the micro level. However, consumers are more conscious about sustainability and the environment, so more sustainable products are going to be seen in 2023. I think it is also a time in which Thailand and other Association of Southeast Asian Nation (ASEAN) countries should play a key role in being the global EV hub—this is a news story that I’d like to see more of next year.

What concerns me more in 2023 is the political situation in Thailand. The general election will take place this year; it is a critical point for the country and can be a game changer. We have seen that the world is experiencing a fundamental shift—high inflation, demographic change as seen in the rise of an aging society, sustainability trends, geopolitics, etcetera. The election results certainly will affect the Thai economy, and it will be a test for Thailand on how it can adapt to these changes in the world.

Q. What is one news story you think we will hear more of in 2023?

A. The United States is showing a tough stance on China across the aisle after its midterm elections. The key aspect of the United States’ China policy is “winning the competition” with semiconductors as the key playing field. The export restrictions on semiconductors that the Biden administration has placed since the fall of 2022 are showing signs of expansion by engaging allies, including Japan, and its impact is expected to be more evident in 2023. The developments surrounding the “Chip 4 Alliance” (a coalition of four countries and regions comprising Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and the United States) and covering new US-Japan investment projects will also attract attention.

Q. What are you optimistic and worried about in 2023?

A. The invasion of Ukraine by Russia and the prolonged war in 2022 rapidly increased the urgency of actions surrounding energy policies, both in a positive and negative way. Whether countries and businesses that faced challenges in balancing environmental, social, and governance (ESG), including climate change, and whether the reality can pivot to required innovations, will be two of the deciding factors to be either optimistic or pessimistic with the trends in 2023 onward.

Q. What is one news story you think we will hear more of in 2023?

A. The biggest theme will be China’s emergence from COVID-19 restrictions and the impact on business and markets. For a long time it seemed that China had painted itself into a corner with its zero-COVID-19 approach, and that it either had to stay isolated indefinitely or make an embarrassing change to its conviction. Now China has accepted the inevitable and has started to open up. As with all countries, it will take China time to get through this, but the business impact will be huge, and not just for Chinese companies. Think of airlines, Asia–Pacific tourism, electric vehicles (EVs): all of these sectors ought to see an upturn.

Q. What are you optimistic and worried about in 2023?

A. There are signs that the United States is getting inflation under control, and one would expect other countries to follow (one thing we learned in 2022 is that the whole world still reacts to what happens at the Federal Reserve). That’s good news, but then we have to face the hit to business growth that has come with higher interest rates. People’s ability to pay their home loans will suffer a clear impact in 2023, with consequent knock-on effects on consumer spending. All of this has to be digested in 2023 before we can think about growth and a risk-on market again.

The other great unknown: what Putin does next.

Q. What is one news story you think we will hear more of in 2023?

A. The threat of a global recession in 2023 was haunting countries, including Asian ones, for several months before the turn of the year. Although various countries in Southeast Asia are said to be relatively resilient—or are resilient—in facing it, all are trying to anticipate it. In this way, maybe countries in Asia will be better prepared, as well as learn from what happened in 2022.

In Indonesia, commitment to substituting commodities that have so far depended on imports has become important. Because of its abundant natural wealth, Indonesia is said to have a great opportunity to be more independent. However, it is not only about the abundance of natural resources. The process of changing people’s behavior will also be decisive and needs to be started and prepared for immediately. Therefore, apart from the recession, it seems that we will hear a lot about sustainability in 2023.

Q. What are you optimistic and worried about in 2023?

A. Apart from food, energy is a sector that was highlighted throughout 2022 in Indonesia, due to turmoil at the global level. The recovery in economic activity has increased demand for energy—which is still dominated by fossil fuels. The community’s need for energy, however, must be met. Yet, if there is no significant change in the pattern of distribution and consumption of energy subsidies, such as fuel and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), it is feared that it will increasingly burden Indonesia’s finances. On the other hand, it can also hinder the development of renewable energy.

However, there is also optimism for the development of renewable energy in Indonesia in 2023. The support from the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) and Energy Transition Mechanism (ETM) that Indonesia received at the G20 in Bali is a big opportunity in accelerating renewable energy. The draft of the New and Renewable Energy Bill, which will also contain nuclear, will be discussed by the Government and the House of Representatives (DPR) for approval. All of this is expected to increase the portion of renewable energy in meeting energy needs in Indonesia.

Q. What is one news story you think we will hear more of in 2023?

A. Asia will be relatively safe from recession, let alone stagflation. However, China may follow the downturn of the advanced countries, especially with COVID-19 spreading faster than ever. The economic outlook for Europe and the United States is very gloomy—inflation is squeezing living standards, consumer confidence, and some companies are experiencing a loss in gross margins. Rising prices and interest rates are weighing on the global economy. The economic forecast remains cloudy going into 2023 as risks continue to materialize. However, emerging market economies should show signs of modest recovery.

Q. What are you optimistic and worried about in 2023?

A. I am optimistic about Asia’s outlook for 2023, excluding China. In the United States, there were signs of relative economic resilience—with its economy showing sound momentum of recovery in the third quarter of 2022 as the US GDP growth rate rebounded after two quarters of slowdown. The US economy continues to throw off mixed signals, while the heightened recession risks in Europe remain in place. In China, there is still a risk of supply-chain disruptions and muted demand as COVID-19 outbreaks sweep through the country. Recession worries will continue to affect Europe and the United States.

Q. What is one news story you think we will hear more of in 2023?

A. Perhaps the biggest business story of 2022 was everything around supply chains, which had shocks from several directions: opening in much of the world and especially in the West; pent-up consumer demand for goods over services; Chinese lockdowns; Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. My hunch is supply chains will remain the most salient business story in 2023, too. Not just because China’s opening will prove to be enormously disruptive, but also because of the ongoing reshoring and friend-shoring by big Western firms and because of large-scale efforts by many countries in the region, chiefly India and Vietnam, to lure away business from China while trying to boost domestic innovation and manufacturing. By the end of 2023 we ought to start seeing the rough contours of what the next era of global supply-chains—perhaps costlier and less efficient but more resilient—will look like.

Q. What are you optimistic and worried about in 2023?

A. India’s potential provides great cause for optimism. It will be the fastest growing major economy next year, its government is pushing hard to produce its own national champions and to lure makers of advanced technology, and its consumers are, despite high inflation, driving domestic demand. But as with so many things about India, the opposite may also turn out to be true—there may be policy surprises such as the demonetisation of high-value bank notes in 2016; growth is uneven across states; unemployment is a growing problem; and an election in early 2024 means the coming year will most likely see some turmoil in the country as well.

Q. What is one news story you think we will hear more of in 2023?

A. As happened in 2022, we will hear a lot about monetary policy. The impact of the sharp rise in interest rates and the start of quantitative tightening will only truly be felt in the months ahead. As the economy takes a downturn, the debate about central bank actions will heat up—especially if prices don’t cool down significantly—forcing them to keep rates higher, for longer. We could see a broader confrontation between political leaders and monetary policy officials. Given the tighter financial conditions, we might also see additional turbulence in capital markets and distress in some assets. Companies will have to continue being agile to adapt to changes in the economic environment.

Q. What are you optimistic and worried about in 2023?

A. On the positive side, unemployment is still quite low in most countries, which should cushion the economic downturn. Also, companies have been increasing their investments in digital transformation, which helps their resilience. If the economy reacts better than expected to the hawkish monetary policy and inflation recedes, we should see a pick-up in the economy in the second half of 2023. On the negative side, energy supply in Europe may be even more challenging in the winter and compromise a recovery. Unfortunately, the war in Ukraine probably won’t end anytime soon.

Q. What is one news story you think we will hear more of in 2023?

A. We will be talking about India much more intensively. Already, hardly any G20 country is growing as fast, and China’s problems are India’s opportunity. In addition, India will be the most populous country in the world by 2023.

Q. What are you optimistic and worried about in 2023?

A. The billions invested in the green transformation of the economy, efficiency technologies and renewable energies make me optimistic. It may well be that the current crisis will be a catalyst for the century-long task of decarbonization. I am concerned that Europe is increasingly falling behind as a region in the power game between the United States and China. Europe lacks a smart, innovation-oriented industrial strategy.

Q. What is one news story you think we will hear more of in 2023?

A. I believe that 2023 will be marked by the increasing control of the European competition authorities over mergers and acquisitions. The pandemic caused a wave of operations that also led to greater control of foreign investment by countries. In the last three years, almost all of the EU-27 member states have adopted or modified their control mechanisms.

After the recent vetoes of some large deals in the United States, Brussels has banned one that it considered could constitute a killer acquisition due to its unfavorable impact on innovation. Soon, it will also address other deals in which we will see the position of the European Union regarding the creation of business giants. It will be interesting to follow the impact of antitrust regulations on consolidation processes, especially regarding large technology companies, which are becoming increasingly influential.

Q. What are you optimistic and worried about in 2023?

A. I am optimistic but realistic, and that invites us to be prudent with the numbers in hand. The macroeconomic indicators of the European Central Bank (ECB) point to a recession during the first quarter of the year in the euro zone and calculate growth of just 0.5 percent in 2023. Inflation led the ECB to approve four interest rate hikes last year, up to 2.5 percent, and it doesn’t look like it’s going to stop there. The war in Ukraine has not yet ended, and although the pandemic’s impact on the economy already seems to have been overcome, the news coming from China of infections and new confinements is worrying. In short, although the prospects are not the best, I am confident in the European Union’s ability to find the formula to face the year successfully.

Q. What is one news story you think we will hear more of in 2023?

A. Hunting for cheap calories. I believe that stories on ‘expensive food’ will hit headlines frequently. Europe might not be afraid of the threat of hunger that is becoming a nightmare in Africa or the Middle East, but many poorer Europeans will be very carefully inspecting the price of each product in their shopping list. During the inflation wave in the 1970s, awareness about the detrimental effects of low-quality food on health was not as high as it is now. It means that for many families the necessity of balancing saving and spending on quality foods will be extremely painful.

These new normal and frustrating choices may create opportunities for populist leaders. I am curious to how big an extent European Farm to Fork Strategy will be criticized in these times.

Q. What are you optimistic and worried about in 2023?

A. One of the most important stories is the future of the European Union-United States relations in the field of regulating digital and financial markets and tools stimulating economy. Beneath the official optimism, there are rising tensions regarding how we should shape our common digital and financial markets and how we should stimulate economies, especially when it comes to the green transition. If the two cannot reach a compromise, we may face the threat of a damaging cross-Atlantic trade and regulatory war.

Q. What is one news story you think we will hear more of in 2023?

A. The big news in 2023 still will be the Russian invasion of Ukraine, at least for the first half of 2023. After the summer, it’s difficult to make predictions: 2022 has told us that we are living in years that are full of surprises (Putin, China, Iran, midterm elections in US): a time for open minds.

Q. What are you optimistic and worried about in 2023?

A. At the start of 2022, democracies were in an apparently weak position and the autocracies on the rise, after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The situation was almost reversed by the end of the year: autocracies showed intrinsic weaknesses, unable to correct their mistakes, and democracies did not appear to be in the terminal decline that some country’s leaders spoke of. However, Western countries’ internal problems are serious, and Europe—with its semi-sclerotic economy and confused international position—seems to be in a more difficult position than the United States, even if you take into account the strong political polarization in Washington. The year 2023 will tell whether the regimes in Moscow and Tehran will hold and how Xi’s third five-year period in China will develop. And it will test the strength and unity of the West.