Extreme weather events can pose a threat to the performance and reliability of power grids—especially when there’s a high demand for electricity. In the United States, for example, Minnesota could see a 75 percent increase in extreme heat days by 2030 while Colorado expects a 29 percent increase in severe thunderstorm frequency, partner Alfonso Encinas Fernandez and coauthors note. To address future grid needs, planners and utilities can consider taking an integrated approach to system planning.
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Two sets of of box diagrams, with 4 boxes in each, display different states’ projected increase by 2030 in weather events that will affect utilities. The first series is a projected increase in the number of extreme heat days as a percentage over the baseline of 100%. The states include: Kansas, 25%; Minnesota, 75%; New Jersey, 43%; and Tennessee, 23%. The second series is the projected increase in severe thunderstorm frequency as a percentage over a baseline of 100%. These states are: Colorado, 29%; Michigan, 19%; New York, 17%; and Arizona, 22%.
Source: CMIP6, Lepore et al. 2021; NASA NEX GDDP CMIP6 ensemble of 10 climate models; McKinsey Climate Analytics.
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To read the article, see “Grid planning under uncertainty: Investing for the energy transition,” December 5, 2023.