The journey is the destination

Shifting customer preferences and go-to-market strategies, such as direct sales, are transforming the commercial vehicle industry. OEMs now have an opportunity to tap new value pools, note senior partner Anna Herlt and coauthors. For example, by 2030, almost 66 percent of global OEM profits from medium- and heavy-duty trucks could come from recurring life cycle services, such as aftermarket, financing and leasing, and data-enabled services.

In 2030, OEMs could earn up to about 66 percent in profits from recurring life cycle services.

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A square pie chart shows the projected $15 billion in profits OEMs could earn from medium-duty and heavy-duty trucks by 2030. Of the total, ~$5.1 billion or 34% would come from one-time profit from the vehicle sales and production. The remaining 66% would all be recurring profit from life cycle services, with $5.8 billion from aftermarket sales, $2.3 billion from financing and leasing, $1.2 billion from data-enabled services, $0.4 billion from insurance, and $0.2 billion from EV charging infrastructure and zero-emissions vehicles.

Source: McKinsey Center for Future Mobility, Proprietary Profit Pool Model, 2023.

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To read the article, see “Roadwork ahead! Commercial vehicles face new go-to-market challenges,” December 18, 2023.