Despite meaningful momentum, the world is not on track to reach the goal of net-zero emissions by 2050. After reviewing 23 current climate policy scenarios, McKinsey Global Institute partner Mekala Krishnan and coauthors found that none would meet net-zero global CO2 emissions by the end of this century. Working toward the 1.5° pathway has been slower than preferred due in part to the complexity of transforming global energy systems, land use, and materials in a coordinated way.
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A line chart shows global CO2 emissions in metric gigatons, by scenario. The line chart animates, showing different scenarios by projected warming ranges from a variety of projections. Overall, a wide range of scenarios indicate that if the world stays on its current trajectory, net zero will not arrive during this century.
Source: AR6 Scenario Explorer and Database, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 2022; International Energy Agency; Network for Greening the Financial System; Global energy perspective 2023, McKinsey, Oct 18, 2023; McKinsey analysis.
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To read the report, see “An affordable, reliable, competitive path to net zero,” November 30, 2023. For more on COP28, the United Nations’ annual climate change conference, head to “McKinsey at COP28.”