Deployment of many clean technologies is falling short of 2030 targets. In particular, a significant proportion of announced projects have not reached the final investment decision stage where they are greenlit for capital deployment, partner Diego Hernandez Diaz and colleagues report. Renewable-energy-generation technologies, especially solar, are the closest to meeting short-term goals, while electrification technologies have seen periods of rapid growth but are now losing momentum. Many innovative technologies that could be crucial for decarbonizing hard-to-electrify sectors have ambitious project pipelines but are not yet deployed at scale.
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A series of stacked bar graphs shows the technology deployment pipeline in the EU-27 + 3 (EU-27 + Norway, Switzerland, and UK) and the US, vs 2030 targets (in which tech deployment is measured to understand the gap between actual vs needed deployment), as a percentage of those targets. In low-carbon power generation, announced solar photovoltaic projects meet and exceed the target by 3%. Operational deployments in 2023 represent <15% of the 205-gigawatt (GW) target for offshore wind, ~60% of the 695 GW target for onshore wind, and 75% of the 705 GW target for solar photovoltaic. In clean commodities production, announced clean-hydrogen projects exceed the target by 98%. Operational deployments in 2023 represent <5% of the 15 million-metric-ton-per-annum (Mtpa) target for clean hydrogen and ~10% of the 136 Mtpa target for sustainable fuels. In end use decarbonization, announced carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) projects exceed the target by 473%. Operational deployments in 2023 represent <30% of the 56 million target for electric vehicles, ~40% of the 156 million target for heat pumps, and ~30% of the 75 Mtpa target for CCUS.
Source: EHPA; EIA; Eurostat; IEA; Rystad; Wind 4C; McKinsey Energy Solutions; McKinsey Hydrogen Insights.
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To read the article, see “The energy transition: Where are we, really?,” August 27, 2024.