COP29—or the Conference of the Parties, which is the UN’s summit to accelerate global action to address climate change—is under way through November 22 in Baku, Azerbaijan. All this week, our data visualizations will focus on key climate themes, including global energy needs, sustainable commodities, and ongoing fossil fuel demand. For more, see “McKinsey at COP29.”
Global energy demand has taken off once again after a dip in 2020. It is projected to grow 11 percent by 2050 if momentum continues at its current pace. Most of the energy demand growth is expected in emerging economies such as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), India, and the Middle East, senior partner Alessandro Agosta and colleagues note. ASEAN countries in particular are expected to propel this growth, which may reshape global energy trade flows.
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A stacked area chart shows the breakdown of global primary energy demand in millions of terajoules from 1990 to projections for 2050 the Continued Momentum scenario. The top of the chart, representing global total primary energy demand in this scenario, begins at ~360 million terajoules in 1990 and increases to ~680 million terajoules by 2050. This overall growth is largely due to increasing demand from 7 regions, all with positive CAGRs from 2023 to 2050. India represents the largest share of the increase, with CAGR growing 2.3% over that period, followed by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (1.2%), Africa (1.0%), Middle East (0.6%), Latin America (0.5%), and the rest of the world (0.5%). China represents the smallest share of the increasing demand group, at 0.3%. Three regions show decreasing demand through 2050: North America (–0.1%), OECD Europe (–0.8%), and OECD Asia–Pacific (–0.9%).
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To read the report, see “Global Energy Perspective 2024,” September 17, 2024.