Low-carbon energy sources are expected to grow from 32 percent of the global power generation mix today to 65 to 80 percent by 2050. Solar and wind are likely to be the greatest share, driven by lower technology costs, according to senior partner Humayun Tai and colleagues in McKinsey’s annual Global Energy Perspective. Solutions with higher costs—including hydrogen and other sustainable fuels, and carbon capture, utilization, and storage—lack sufficient demand and policy support for strong growth.
Image description:
A series of stacked bar charts shows the global power generation from 1995 to 2050, measured in thousands of terawatt-hours (TWh), highlighting historical data for 1995, 2010, and 2023, along with projections for 2030, 2040, and 2050. The 2023–50 data is separated into 3 scenarios—Slow Evolution (SE), Continued Momentum (CM), and Sustainable Transformation (ST)—each showing different trajectories for sources of renewable energy adoption.
In 1995, global power generation was ~13,000 TWh, predominantly from coal and gas. By 2023, it increased to ~28,000 TWh, with renewables making up a larger share of the energy mix. By 2050, projections indicate a growth of between 59,000 TWh and 79,000 TWh across all scenarios. The share of renewables in the energy mix also increases across all scenarios, with renewable energy comprising from ~45% in the SE scenario to as much as 80% in the ST scenario by 2050.
Footnote 1: Excludes generation from storage (pumped hydro, batteries, long-duration energy storage).
Footnote 2: SE = Slow Evolution; CM = Continued Momentum; ST = Sustainable Transformation.
Footnote 3: Other includes bioenergy (with and without carbon capture, utilization, and storage [CCUS]), geothermal, and oil.
Footnote 4: Includes gas and coal plants with CCUS, nuclear, and hydrogen.
Footnote 5: Includes solar, wind, hydro, biomass, bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), geothermal, and hydrogen-fired gas turbines.
End of image description.
To read the report, see “Global Energy Perspective 2024,” September 17, 2024.