Fossil fuels linger on

COP29—or the Conference of the Parties, which is the UN’s summit to accelerate global action to address climate change—is under way through November 22 in Baku, Azerbaijan. All this week, our data visualizations will focus on key climate themes, including global energy needs, sustainable commodities, and ongoing fossil fuel demand. For more, see “McKinsey at COP29.”

Global fossil fuel demand in the coming years will be better described as a plateau than a peak. Demand is likely to remain near current levels through 2030, before eventually declining. Oil, natural gas, and coal will provide between 39 and 61 percent of global energy demand in 2050, depending on the scenario, according to senior partner Humayun Tai and colleagues in McKinsey’s annual Global Energy Perspective. In all scenarios, coal is expected to decline.

Fossil demand is projected to plateau before declining, but it still accounts for 40 to 60 percent of total energy demand in 2050.

To read the report, see “Global Energy Perspective 2024,” September 17, 2024.