COP29—or the Conference of the Parties, which is the UN’s summit to accelerate global action to address climate change—is under way through November 22 in Baku, Azerbaijan. All this week, our data visualizations will focus on key climate themes, including global energy needs, sustainable commodities, and ongoing fossil fuel demand. For more, see “McKinsey at COP29.”
While the volume of green commodities remains relatively small, buyers have embraced sustainable offerings. McKinsey survey respondents report their current share of such purchases at 9 and 12 percent for battery-grade lithium and nickel, respectively, and 23 percent for plastics, senior partner Michel Van Hoey and colleagues note. By 2030, demand for green materials may increase to as much as 40 percent of the total for steel, plastics, and battery materials. Buyers in the automotive, construction, energy equipment, and consumer-packaged-goods sectors account for the bulk of these increases.
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A series of area charts depicts the anticipated average share of green materials in respondents’ procurement volume for 7 materials from 2024 to 2030. Nickel is projected to see the largest increase, rising 33 percentage points, from 12% in 2024 to 45% in 2030. Lithium is projected to increase from 9% to 41% and steel from 16% to 41% over the same period. Aluminum is projected to rise by 21 percentage points to 35% in 2030, from 14% in 2024; glass by 19 percentage points to 31% in 2030, from 12% in 2024; plastics by 18 percentage points to 41% in 2030, from 23% in 2024, and copper by 10 percentage points to 26% by 2030, from 16% in 2024.
Footnote: Plastics category includes polyvinyl chloride, high-density polyethylene, low-density polyethylene, polypropylene, polyethylene terephthalate, polylactic acid, engineering plastics (eg, acrylonitrile butadiene styrene, polycarbonate), and thermoplastic polyurethane.
Source: McKinsey Global Survey of decision makers in materials sales and purchases, Mar 11–21, 2024.
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To read the article, see “Materials ‘green’ premia: Trends and outlook to 2030,” September 25, 2024.