Geopolitical instability and conflicts are the top threats to growth, according to global executives surveyed on economic conditions. Senior partner and McKinsey Global Institute chair Sven Smit and coauthors find that uneasiness about domestic political conflicts and transitions of political leadership, now the second- and third-most-cited risks, respectively, have overtaken concerns about inflation. There was some variation in the results, depending on geographies: transitions of political leadership were the top concern in North America and were cited nearly twice as often as in a December survey. Geopolitical instability was the leading concern in Europe.
Image description:
A heat map shows bubbles that represent the biggest potential risks to economic growth within respondents’ respective countries. The data are organized horizontally into different regions and potential risk categories and are ranked in ascending order along both areas. The top 3 overall risks are geopolitical instability and conflict, transitions of political leadership, and domestic political conflicts. Europe and Asia–Pacific are identified as the top 2 regions at risk of geopolitical instability and conflict, at 58% and 51%, respectively. India and North America are identified as the top 2 regions at risk of transitions of political leadership, at 31% and 52%, respectively. North America and developing markets are identified as the top 2 regions at risk of domestic political conflicts, at 36% and 40%, respectively.
Source: McKinsey Global Survey on economic conditions, 957 participants at all levels of the organization, Mar 4–8, 2024.
End of image description.
To read the survey, see “Economic conditions outlook, March 2024,” March 29, 2024.