The likelihood of age- and lifestyle-related diseases—including cardiovascular diseases, cancers, and neurological disorders—is expected to increase by about 20 percent through 2040. However, the incidence of chronic respiratory diseases is likely to drop.
Over the next 20 years, the US disease burden is expected to increase by ~20 percent as age- and lifestyle-related diseases rise.
| Disease, sorted by likelihood of incidence with age, high to low | Change in disease burden, % (DALYs1) | 2020 disease burden DALYs, approximate relative size among the diseases |
|---|---|---|
| B Cardiovascular diseases | 7 | 45 |
| C Chronic respiratory diseases | -12 | 24 |
| R Sense organ diseases | 35 | 20 |
| A Cancers | 19 | 48 |
| D Diabetes and kidney diseases | 54 | 35 |
| L Neurological disorders | 51 | 35 |
| E Digestive diseases | 30 | 14 |
| J Musculoskeletal disorders | 21 | 38 |
| V Unintentional injuries | 12 | 23 |
| S Skin and subcutaneous diseases | 14 | 22 |
| P Respiratory infections and tuberculosis | 23 | 16 |
| I Mental disorders | 6 | 31 |
| F Enteric infections | 81 | 8 |
| U Transport injuries | 12 | 20 |
| O Other noncommunicable diseases | 17 | 35 |
| T Substance-use disorders | 37 | 30 |
| Q Self-harm and interpersonal violence | -12 | 18 |
| M Nutritional deficiencies | 12 | 5 |
| K Neglected tropical diseases and malaria | 28 | 1 |
| N Other infectious diseases | 22 | 6 |
| G HIV/AIDS and sexually-transmitted infections | -7 | 6 |
| H Maternal and neonatal disorders | -15 | 12 |
Notes
1DALY = disability-adjusted life year.
Source: Global Burden of Disease Database 2016, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME); McKinsey Global Institute analysis
McKinsey & Company
To read the article, see “How prioritizing health is a prescription for US prosperity,” October 5, 2020.