The Industry & Energy Transition Index: Portugal

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Europe, including Portugal, has experienced a deindustrialization wave and overall loss of competitiveness in recent decades. The energy transition, however, presents a real opportunity to reignite growth and reindustrialize the economy, and Portugal is well positioned to become a “speedboat,” leading the way within Europe’s economic plan.

This transformation is long and complex, with significant stakes—it could potentially boost GDP by approximately 15 percent by 2030 and create thousands of skilled jobs. But progress can often get lost in political and media coverage, making it difficult to track. To address this, we have created the IETI Index, part of the Industry and Energy Transition Initiative in Iberia, to monitor progress and initiate meaningful discussions on accelerating Portugal’s energy transition and reindustrialization. Every six months, we will release a new publication focused on 14 key indicators and expert insights (see more about the methodology here).

About the Index

The IETI Index is part of the Industry and Energy Transition Initiative in Iberia, a McKinsey think tank focused on accelerating efforts in Portugal and Spain to decarbonize and reindustrialize their economies.

The Index is based on four key dimensions for the energy transition (sustainability, reliability, affordability, and competitiveness) and four for industrialization (production, investments, employment, and exports). For each dimension, we select a set of quantitative indicators, drawing data from public sources. We track the historical progress and compare it to “arrival references,” for example, the 2030 national policy goals. We then draw various trajectories between what Iberia has done and where it needs to get—and compare today’s performance to that trajectory. By mapping these trajectories, we can assess whether current performance in Portugal and Spain is “on track,” “leading,” or “lagging” to reach the 2030 goals.

This quantitative approach is complemented by expert insights. We update the Index every six months for all the indicators, providing an ongoing assessment of Portugal’s and Spain’s progress.

About the author(s)

André Anacleto is a partner in McKinsey’s Lisbon office, where Maria João Ribeirinho is a senior partner; David González is a senior partner in the Madrid office, where Tilman Tacke is a partner, and Denitsa Georgieva, Diogo Parreira, and Javier Marazuela are consultants.

The authors wish to thank Álvaro Bau, Ana Carolina Gaspar Cordeiro, Diogo Amorim Santiago, Diogo Setúbal, Ignacio Martínez Giménez, Jose Luis González, Joseba Eceiza, José Pimenta da Gama, Juan Antonio Bahillo, Patricia Ovidio, Pedro Alvarilhao, and Tomás Calleja for their contributions to this report.