Brent crude oil prices decreased in March to an average of USD72.7/bbl m-o-m, a decline of USD2.7/bbl compared to the previous month’s average. Uncertainty over the impact of US tariffs and the planned OPEC+ production increase led to a downswing in prices in March:
- Global oil demand. Global liquids demand decreased in March by 1.3 MMb/d m-o-m to 103.3 MMb/d. This was driven mainly by the Middle East, Europe, and Japan, with a demand fall of 0.6 MMb/d, 0.3 MMb/d, and 0.3 MMb/d, respectively
- OPEC 9 production (excl. Iran, Venezuela, Libya). OPEC 9’s production increased slightly by ~0.4 MMb/d to 27.4 MMb/d in March, with major changes in production seen in Iraq and Saudi Arabia. Gradual unwinding of OPEC+’s 2.2-MMb/d production cuts set to start from April 2025
- Non-OPEC production (excl. US shale). Non-OPEC production decreased by ~0.3 MMb/d m-o-m to 61.8 MMb/d. The production decline was driven by Kazakhstan and China, accounting for around 0.2 MMb/d and 0.1 MMb/d, respectively
- US shale oil production. US shale production increased m-o-m by 0.1 MMb/d, averaging at 9.1 MMb/d in March. The number of active rigs stood at 569 in March, up by one unit compared to February 2025
- Iran, Venezuela, Libya production. Combined production levels in Iran, Venezuela, and Libya slightly decreased by ~0.1 MMb/d m-o-m, averaging at 5.5 MMb/d during March 2025, with the decline mainly driven by Iran
- Commercial inventories.1 Global commercial inventories increased by ~30 million barrels in March, driven by an increase in non-OECD inventories. Overall, inventories have remained relatively steady at ~4.5 billion barrels over the last five months
- Market sentiment. Brent prices fell in March after an escalation in trade tensions and mounting fear of global economic slowdown. Worries over prospect of some OPEC+ countries adopting additional production cuts also affected oil prices. Additionally, the volatility is fueled by ongoing discussions of a ceasefire between Russia-Ukraine and its possible impact on oil markets
1 Non-OECD share of inventories is estimated, assuming that non-OECD inventories have 50% days of demand cover of OECD inventories
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Oil supply & demand dashboard: March 2025
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