This essay is part of a continuing publication series for the Global Crisis & Resilience Forum led by Juliette Kayyem, Faculty Chair of the Belfer Center’s Homeland Security Program. The forum is supported by McKinsey & Company. The ideas in these essays are the independent product of the authors.
Editors: Juliette Kayyem, Nate Bruggeman
Weather and climate disasters are becoming more frequent, wide-ranging, severe, and costly. While consequences for life and health are always at the forefront, one way to measure disaster impact is through estimates of economic impacts. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates that from 2019 to 2023, the US experienced more than 100 $1 billion disasters, with total costs in excess of $0.5 trillion. This is four times the average number of $1 billion disasters and more than double the costs of any other five-year period since 2000. In 2023 alone, there were 28 $1 billion disasters, the highest number recorded since 1980 (when data became available). And these disasters affected 46 states, almost twice the number of states affected by $1 billion disasters in 2000. Indeed, the number of states experiencing $1 billion disasters has steadily risen year over year since 2000.
More and worsening disasters across a broader swath of the country means more lives and livelihoods placed in harm’s way and more communities likely facing intertwined economic and social consequences. Given current trends, state and local leaders are seeking ways to help their communities recover and rebuild effectively in the wake of disaster, restoring not only infrastructure and homes but economic competitiveness and social well-being. To help inform state and local recovery planning efforts, we examined quantitative and anecdotal evidence from US communities that have demonstrated robust resilience in the face of disasters—what we termed leading recoveries—as well as for communities that experienced lower resilience where we saw lagging recoveries.
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