1. Set the starting point

1500

S&P 500 level

ie, at today's value

1,000
3,000
Growth, CAGR,1 %
Nominal return 8.7    
Real return 6.6    
CAGR 0%0%0%
Simulated total returns to shareholders (TRS)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
Years
1Compound annual growth rate.

2. Create your scenarios

Current market valuation +

0%

at fair value, over, or under

–30%
30%

Years to revert to fair value +

0

ie, before market returns to normal

0
20

Real cost of capital +

7%

over the next 20 years

5%
10%

Real growth +

3%

over the next 20 years

–2%
5%

Inflation +

2%

for first 5 years

–2%
10%
2%

for following 15 years

–2%
5%