| This week, what’s changed in mobility after a stay-put year. Plus, breaking through data-architecture gridlock to scale AI, and an interview with Lee Hsien Loong, Singapore’s prime minster, about leading through the pandemic. |
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| Wheels up. Innovations in mobility were promising before the pandemic, from novel ways of buying cars and a growing electric-vehicle market to shared mobility options in cities. As we all look forward to getting out and about more, what trends will, er, drive the mobility revolution this year and beyond? |
| A maturing market. Even before 2020, mobility had matured in three key areas: customer preferences, technology, and regulations. Just as consumers have turned to digital channels for food delivery and entertainment, they also expect mobility players to expand their online offerings. For instance, more than 80 percent of car buyers use online resources—and only a third of 18- to 34-year-olds say they’d prefer to buy their next vehicle at a dealership rather than online. In our Next Normal video series, we look at how customers want car buying to be omnichannel, personalized, and fun. |
| Here come the EVs. Global vehicle sales were down last year, but 2021 brings new opportunities. The auto industry is expected to develop roughly 250 new electric vehicles (EVs) in the next two years alone. EVs will comprise more than 10 percent of global vehicle sales by 2025 and up to 30 percent of global vehicle sales by 2030. Those numbers were potentially given a kick by GM’s recent announcement that it will aim to sell only zero-emission cars and trucks by 2035. |
| Regulations and incentives. China and Europe have already increased purchase subsidies and tax breaks to incentivize EV growth. The likely result is a stronger, quicker recovery and increased EV market share—these recoveries will likely surpass pre-COVID-19 projections. In 2022, China and Europe’s global EV market share could reach 14 and 15 percent, respectively. In the United States, low prepandemic EV sales and low oil prices are likely to breed slower growth in comparison, though that could change. |
| More bike lanes, please. Micromobility has always appealed to consumers looking for eco-friendly ways to avoid traffic, but it serves an additional purpose now: providing safe, physically distanced transportation solutions. The sector suffered a blow at the start of shelter-at-home orders but is expected to make a strong postpandemic recovery. Our recent consumer survey found that the number of respondents willing to use micromobility on a regular basis increased by 9 percent for private mobility and 12 percent for shared mobility compared with precrisis figures. To prepare, many cities have already expanded bicycle, scooter, and walking lanes. |
| Rising above the traffic. In response to increasing urban-road congestion, more than 250 businesses plan to build, operate, or manufacture urban air mobility vehicles (UAMs). These “air taxis” are quiet, eco-friendly, and will eventually be pilotless. Perhaps surprisingly, building an air mobility system may be more cost-effective than a new subway or bypass system. Physical infrastructure and ride pricing are the more challenging hurdles, but hey, we can dream. |
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| VIDEOS |
| The courage to be yourself |
| In celebration of Black History Month, we asked several McKinsey colleagues to share a special part of their history through a favorite artifact or family heirloom. In these three short videos, Chelsea Doub, an instructional designer in Boston, Sara Prince, a partner in Atlanta, and Kelemwork Tariku-Shotts, a consultant in Cleveland, talk about how much their grandmothers inspired them. |
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| MORE ON MCKINSEY.COM |
| To scale AI, you have to break through data-architecture gridlock | Large-scale data modernization and rapidly evolving data technologies often stall AI transformations. These five steps can enable organizations to move quickly, building momentum and value along the way. |
| Reimagining industrial supply chains | After seeing the COVID-19 pandemic generate unprecedented disruptions to global supply chains, CEOs are taking innovative approaches to build resilient, digitally infused operations. |
| Chief procurement officers: the first 100 days | Disruptive events, geopolitical risks, and cost pressures mean that a new CPO needs to hit the ground running. The key is to focus on the most important sources of value and to follow an agile approach. |
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| THREE QUESTIONS FOR |
| Lee Hsien Loong |
| At a recent virtual event for Asia’s leaders, Oliver Tonby, chairman of McKinsey’s offices in Asia, had the chance to speak with Singapore’s prime minister, Lee Hsien Loong, about his experience leading his country through the pandemic.
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| What does good leadership look like in the next normal? |
| First of all, you have to know and you have to believe that good leadership makes a crucial difference. You can have the best group in the world, but unless they can, amongst themselves, muster a leadership team whom they trust, who are capable, who are able to organize them, inspire them, and take them forward—I think their capabilities would be limited, and the group may not even hold together. So, good leadership makes a vital difference. |
| Second, if you are in a leadership position, you have to seek out and make full use of others. There are more things in heaven and earth than you can possibly encompass—even in the most capacious mind. You cannot know it all—you must depend on others who know more about many things than you do. And be able to tap them, get them to work for you, and to put them together in order to get a coherent overall reaction. I talk here about COVID-19, but this is really what you must do in many, many situations. |
| Thirdly, you have to be prepared for surprises and setbacks. You can do the right thing, you can make the best decision, but things can easily turn out differently. And you have to be prepared for that psychologically. Well, you made the best bet. It didn’t work. Let’s play the cards from where they are. |
| As we reimagine the next normal, how is society going to change? |
| The economic impact will linger. Even if COVID-19 disappears tomorrow, economies aren’t going to recover overnight, and the virus is going to be with us for quite some time yet—a year, maybe longer. And the impact on economies will last longer than that, particularly for sectors like travel and tourism, but even the knock-on effects on the rest of the economy as well are considerable. |
| Therefore, there is impact on jobs. And that goes across the board in different ways. For example, many low-income workers can’t work remotely. In a crisis [like this], they are exposed to the public-health risks. But also to the risk of losing their jobs and being thrown onto their own resources, and maybe unable to cope for themselves. |
| The economic stresses, uncertainties, the social stresses, the public-health challenges are not only going to affect our society but are also going to affect trust in government, and therefore the way politics plays out in many countries. |
| How should we think about the role of government? |
| We now know where the limits of markets are; what markets can do, what markets cannot do. And one of the things markets cannot do is to prepare you very well for new pandemics. You may know that they are on the way, but you can’t provide for them. |
| Not even with pandemic insurance—never mind all the other things you must do for resilience, self-reliance, forward planning, and preparing the population. So for situations like that, there is no substitute for the government coming in to play its role. And you have to draw from state resources. You have to commit to them. You have to take a view. And you have to persuade the population that these are investments which are essential, even in the face of many other seemingly more urgent priorities. |
| — Edited by Barbara Tierney |
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| BACKTALK |
| Have feedback or other ideas? We’d love to hear from you. |
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