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What’s the real story? The connection between population and economics can be murky. The US economy is often described as dynamic because the country’s population is more youthful than, say, Japan’s. Between 2000 and 2019, the US economy grew 46% compared with Japan’s 26%. But Japan’s growth occurred despite a declining working-age population, while its per capita growth rate for those aged 16 to 64 was 5% higher than that in the US. Other trends are clearer—for example, declining fertility rates in Europe, South Korea, and the US, which may make economic growth in those regions harder to achieve. [FT] |
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Not so fast. Fertility isn’t the only factor in population growth or decline. Deaths and immigration are just as important. In 2016, the number of immigrants to the US exceeded the number of people leaving by more than one million. But immigration has since cratered, falling below 250,000 in 2021. And about that declining fertility rate? It’s sometimes regarded as a sign of female empowerment. But that, too, may be simplistic. There’s a growing gap between the number of children Americans say they want and the number of children they have. One possible reason: caring for children has become too expensive. [Atlantic] |
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Billions and billions. Since 1975, the global population has increased by one billion people every 11 to 12 years, and the planet is now approaching the eight-billion-people mark. What does it mean for this many people to exist? It’s easy to cite smart-sounding population stats without really understanding their implications. Fertility, mortality, and migration all influence population trends, but there’s a great divide between richer and poorer countries that affects these three variables, says political-demography expert Dr. Jennifer Sciubba.
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Staying close to home. In the book 8 Billion and Counting: How Sex, Death, and Migration Shape Our World, Dr. Sciubba provides an overview of global demographic trends. One discovery: migration is rare. During speaking engagements, she often asks audiences, “What proportion of the world’s population do you think lives outside the country in which they were born?” Most say 20 to 50%, but the right answer for the past 50 years has been 2 to 4%. In a recent conversation with McKinsey, she describes these and other findings and explains why there’s no need to panic about population trends.
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| — Edited by Heather Byer |
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Copyright © 2022 | McKinsey & Company, 3 World Trade Center, 175 Greenwich Street, New York, NY 10007
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