Most of the world’s cities are largely car-centric. More than 50 percent of the miles traveled in a city are done so in cars—and mostly in personal vehicles. Over the past decades, there’s been a strong correlation between an increase in GDP and an increase in cars per capita. Typically, as a society gets wealthier, people have more cars. More cars lead not only to more mobility but also to more traffic and emissions.

We are at or past the tipping point in many cities. If we continue this trajectory of growth in GDP, in the number of vehicle miles traveled, and in the number of cars on the streets, cities would likely come to a complete standstill. Including more shared-mobility options could keep traffic flowing in cities and avoid gridlock. Shared mobility makes cities more livable. 

My colleagues and I developed two scenarios that show how the shared-mobility market could evolve over the next decade. In our base case, everything that’s currently happening keeps going, but shared mobility trends don’t accelerate. Micromobility doesn’t accelerate, and neither does the rollout of autonomous driving. There isn’t massive investment into public transit. 

Even in that scenario, the share of private-vehicle miles traveled will decrease. In an average larger city in Europe and in a typical American city, about five to ten percentage points of all miles traveled will be redistributed to other mobility modes.

As a result, micromobility will increase. People will bike more, ride more scooters, and even walk for certain trips. A share of private-vehicle trips will be replaced by ride hailing, taxis, and the like. These services are growing. Our analysis shows that by 2030, shared mobility could create $500 billion to $1 trillion in revenues. People like mobility as a service. They like shared mobility.

What does this mean for cities? They won’t change much. Bike-lane infrastructure will continue to improve, making cities more bike-friendly. Certain downtown areas will keep becoming more off-limits to cars or, at least, less convenient for private vehicles. The total number of miles traveled will also remain pretty much constant.

I’ll also mention our accelerated scenario. We’re partnering with a Scandinavian city that wants to do away with 90 percent of all private vehicles by 2030. It’s an ambitious target. Imagine that the city today has about 50 to 55 percent of all miles traveled by private vehicles, with the rest distributed over other forms of mobility. How does a city get rid of 90 percent of all private cars and reduce private-vehicle miles to 5 or 10 percent of the total miles traveled?

Ultimately, it means that society needs an alternative to private vehicles. That will require more investment into public transit. A significant push into micromobility—adding bike lanes, more scooters, more shared bikes—will also help. All of the existing ride-hailing services, car-sharing programs, and the rest will continue to grow. But there will still be a significant gap. Depending on the city, our analysis shows that gap equals somewhere between 20 to 35 percentage points of the total modal mix, which is a sizable number of vehicle miles.

We believe that mileage gap will be serviced by pooled autonomous vehicles, or robo-shuttles. These will be multiseat vehicles that you’ll hail via an app. Together with other passengers, you will ride to your destination. You might make two or three stops along the way to drop people off, which will add a bit of time to your journey. But it will still be convenient because you won’t have to drive, and the vehicle will pick you up right where you are.

The price tag for that robo-shuttle ride is going to be nowhere near what you would pay for a ride-hailing service today. But in theory, it’s going to be comparable to what you pay for your private vehicle today, analyzing your cost per trip. 

For cities, mobility leaders, and the auto industry at large, the most important thing to understand is that there’s going to be a reduction in private-vehicle miles traveled. But the value pool and consumer spending for mobility is not going to decline. 

Finding new ways to supply the consumer with mobility is extremely attractive. People will always want to be mobile. The question is, “How do I tweak my business model?” The first step is to accept the fact that mobility is changing. Try not to have the discussion that all this is not happening. Mobility could change so drastically that every business model that touches it will likely be affected. It’s up to business leaders and others to ensure that these changes are positive. 

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Kersten Heineke is a partner in McKinsey’s Frankfurt office and coleader of the McKinsey Center for Future Mobility.

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