FRESH TAKES ON BIG IDEAS

Despite mounting global efforts to counter it, the Earth’s climate is continuing to change. The global mean temperature is the warmest it has been since modern records began, at about 1.2°C above what it was before the Industrial Revolution. There’s been a 9 percent annual increase in losses from global natural disasters since 1980, driven by both increased risk and increased exposure. New York City, where I live, broke the record this year for the longest time without measurable snowfall: more than 700 days.

Efforts to reduce net carbon emissions have been increasing as well. Countries and companies have been committing to reaching net-zero emissions by 2050. There is growing investment in emissions reduction technology and carbon capture projects. It is encouraging to see that more businesses are taking action. But the efforts to date are not nearly enough. Total net emissions are still increasing rather than decreasing.

Now is the time to understand that, regardless of mitigation efforts, some level of warming is already unavoidable. The world needs to prepare for a different future. Extreme heat will become more prevalent, reducing the productivity of outdoor labor. Hurricanes will become more severe and move poleward, with more communities and infrastructure impacted. As seas rise, people will likely be displaced from flood risk areas. As precipitation patterns change, agricultural crop yields will decline.

The scale is enormous, and hundreds of millions of people, if not billions, could ultimately be affected. 

Disadvantaged communities—especially those in the Global South that have contributed the least to warming—will be hit hardest. Even in countries in the Global North, the effects will be felt unequally; Black Americans in the southern US, for example, are more likely than their neighbors to be impacted by climate change.

Our collective responsibility is to break down this thorny, global problem into concrete and actionable steps. That means asking, “What is my company or community doing to make itself resilient and hence more capable of thriving in this uncertain and hotter world?”

“The impacts of climate change are not linear, so even 0.1°C of global mean temperature warming could have exponential effects.”

Adaptation takes many forms. The first thing for any organization to do is better understand the climate risks and plan for a world that will be much warmer than it is today. 

First, look at multiple future scenarios. Even if the world implements all its climate change policies, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change tells us that by the early 2030s, the global mean temperature could be 1.5°C higher than in preindustrial times, with warming reaching 2.7°C before the end of the 21st century. The impacts are not linear, so even 0.1°C of global mean temperature warming could have exponential effects.

It’s prudent to plan for a world that has warmed to at least 2°C above preindustrial levels and build in flexibility to adapt further if needed. If there’s a coastal community that needs protection, the question to ask in order to understand the full range of possible impacts is, “What does a 1-in-100-year flood look like in a 1.5°C, 2°C, and 2.5°C world?”

Then, it’s important to select the right adaptation mechanism—let’s say, building a floodwall for a 1.5°C world, but with a structural base that’s big and broad enough to build upon later for a 2°C world. One good example of adaptable planning is the Thames Barrier project, which has movable barriers for flood protection.

For many businesses, adapting to climate change translates to tackling supply chain risk. Take coffee and chocolate, for example. Coffee and cocoa beans grow in South America in areas that may be less suitable for cultivation in the future due to climate change. A company that depends on these products, and sources from communities that could be impacted, could think about how to diversify its supply chain or how to partner with others to build a more resilient supply base. For example, multiple companies could partner together with nonprofits and aid organizations, in collaboration with local governments, to build country-wide resilience to support agricultural production. Society needs to figure out how to support local communities to ensure these transitions are equitable.

Things are changing fast, and 2030 isn’t very far away. The world needs to stack hands now and come together to protect communities and cultures on the front lines of climate change. It will take cooperation across the public and private sectors, with philanthropy and foundations involved, too. People must continue to pour as many resources as possible into staving off the worst impacts of climate change. The day for businesses and governments to start preparing for a changed climate has come.

ABOUT THIS AUTHOR

Alexis Trittipo is a partner in McKinsey’s New York office and leads McKinsey’s global climate risk and adaptation work.