| The Shortlist just turned three—thanks, readers, for your feedback and support. This week, we look at whether the world economy can gain more than it lost to the COVID-19 pandemic. Plus, the top trends in tech and Kris Tompkins, former CEO of Patagonia, on how she came by her environmentalism. |
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| Turning the corner. Are we heading for a 50 percent economic expansion? Had anyone suggested in early 2020 that there could be a boom decade in the offing, many people would have fainted at their (WFH) desks. But history suggests that we could see that kind of expansion after a recession, with the right moves from public- and private-sector leaders. |
| Two tracks. In March 2020, we argued that the imperatives of our time were the battles to flatten the twin curves of viral spread and economic shock. We said then that there was no trade-off between the virus and the economy, and that has been borne out: no country kept its economy moving well without also taking control over the virus. |
| Uncertainty is receding. Today, after multiple peaks of viral spread and with the COVID-19-vaccine rollout progressing, some regions are finally getting a handle on both the disease and the economy. Although leaders have applied public-health measures and economic stimulus with varying intensity, government support through fiscal and monetary policies has unequivocally worked. Employment rates are recovering, though at different degrees, in all countries. Even nations that are still facing challenges are likely to see strong headline GDP growth in 2021. It’s now possible to imagine a recovery that will mean a better quality of life for more people—and a more sustainable future for the planet. |
| The big question. What should public- and private-sector leaders focus on next? Three broad beliefs shape our answers. First, 3 to 4 percent annual global economic growth is achievable with available technology—a “productivity miracle” isn’t needed. Second, we don’t have to choose between sustained and inclusive growth; the goals can be complementary. Third, the medical advances and process accelerations achieved in response to the pandemic open the possibility that we can make rapid and unprecedented progress against persistent health problems. |
| Prosperity for all. If global leaders set the expectations that these outcomes are possible, and act on them, then the world could be on the cusp of a new age of growth in jobs and income. The road will be rough in places. The first year of the pandemic and the policies designed in response have had a profound impact on how people view their governments, how well economies are positioned to rebound, and how much public and private debt has been accumulated along the way. |
| It’s an extraordinary opportunity—and a commensurate challenge. If the world’s public- and private-sector leaders aren’t able to capitalize on the promise of prosperity for all, the recovery could end up adding only 10 to 20 percent to GDP, less equitably distributed, less sustainable, and with worse outcomes for global health and the environment. |
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| PODCAST |
| Moving beyond the org chart |
| From project-based work to a lack of hierarchy, the way people work is changing fast. Organizations that plan for the postpandemic world are better able to deliver value—even amid uncertainty. In this episode of The McKinsey Podcast, Chris Gagnon and Elizabeth Mygatt talk about what it takes for companies to be “future ready.” As Mygatt puts it, “We’re seeing ... four macrotrends that really inform how organizations have to evolve differently. They’re around increasing connectivity, which is really undermining traditional power structures.” |
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| MORE ON MCKINSEY.COM |
| Out of the lab, into the frying pan | Cultivated meat has garnered significant attention as a protein source that can meet consumer needs with a reduced impact on the planet. Here’s how an industry built up around a novel food can succeed. |
| The path to recovery for US hospitality | McKinsey partner Vik Krishnan explores the pandemic’s impact on the hospitality sector and forecasts what’s to come. He also posits five key questions that industry leaders should be asking themselves. |
| Fine jewelry and watches: Bringing the sparkle back | A new State of Fashion report identifies six seismic shifts that will shape value pools in the fine-jewelry and premium- to ultraluxury-watches industries through 2025. |
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| FOUR QUESTIONS FOR |
| Kris Tompkins |
| When serving as CEO of Patagonia, Kris Tompkins helped build a company that was both financially successful and a leader on environmental causes. As president of Tompkins Conservation, she has used her private-sector expertise—with support from our colleagues—to help Chile create one of the largest protected areas on the planet. In a recent interview with McKinsey, she talked about climate change, biodiversity loss, and how calls for action, ranging from decarbonization to net zero commitments to conserving vast swathes of nature, continue to grow. |
| What made you act to preserve and rewild vast swathes of land? |
| Like everything in life, it was an organic process. You notice something, then you get more involved. You meet people you wouldn’t have met before. |
| I grew up in a milieu of serious adventurers. I met Yvon Chouinard [founder of Patagonia] when I was 15. My late husband Doug Tompkins [cofounder of North Face and Esprit] was a climber and a world-class kayaker. In the early years, we didn’t really understand what was happening to the natural world. But by the early 1980s, it became clear that it was really coming under attack. |
| After Doug left the business world, he had the idea of buying up large tracts of land and just protecting them. When I left Patagonia, we moved to a remote area in south Chile and used our finances to get started. At first, we didn’t have this grand plan to create national parks. But not long after that, we decided that this was something we could do. |
| How did your private-sector experience help prepare you for that chapter? |
| I was working with Yvon Chouinard and married to Doug Tompkins, two truly entrepreneurial and visionary people. They taught me two important things. The first is that nothing is impossible. And the second is that if you’re going to go for something, you have to commit—then you figure it out. If you never commit to something until you have it all dialed in and you can see how it’s all going to unfold, you’ll never start. |
| Next to those two, I was sort of the boring one. I made the trains run on time and thought about the budgets. But there was an alchemy there. Between their visionary style and my results-oriented brain, we really had something that was special. |
| Tompkins Conservation coined the phrase ‘rewilding.’ How does your strategy for reintroducing animals into the wild fit in with your conservation? |
| About 15 years ago, we realized that we had some conservation projects in which a lot of keystone species were missing. And we had to ask ourselves what we were going to do about that. As someone once said, “Landscape without wildlife is just scenery.” We couldn’t just protect the land and walk away, because what would we be leaving behind? What’s two million acres of wetlands with no jaguars, no pumas? |
| Now, we’ve worked on rewilding about 13 species. We have jaguars back in their southernmost territory in Argentina for the first time in 90 years. We have red-shouldered macaws flying in the same region for the first time in 100 years. You need these animals for conservation to have its full impact on local, regional, and national communities. |
| Rewilding territory—and rewilding species—is a highly complex goal but a necessary one. We also need to rewild ourselves. Communities are forever linked to the goodness and health of the nature around them. |
| What do you think the private sector can do differently on conservation? |
| That’s a big question. I’ve only worked for one company my entire life. But I know that the great limiting factor in any business or institution is a lack of bravery. Instead of just looking at all the pitfalls that can happen—if it’s controversial, or it may be unpopular—eventually you need to put that to the side and just do it. |
| What’s the worst that can happen? If you’re successful in leading on this issue, you’re going to change our global future. If you’re not, this stuff is fun. This isn’t drudgery. People want to work for companies that care and where they can do something they believe in. If part of your day job is changing the world, who wouldn’t go for that? |
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| — Edited by Barbara Tierney |
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| BACKTALK |
| Have feedback or other ideas? We’d love to hear from you. |
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