McKinsey Global Economics Intelligence

Third-quarter GDP reports reveal a mixed global economy. China faces an economic slowdown; the United States sees growth; and the eurozone is stable. The IMF forecasts a slow but stable global trajectory into 2025.

The OECD sees the global economy improving. Central banks’ strategies are diverging, with some cutting rates and others raising them. China announces a major stimulus, and the US Federal Reserve cuts rates.

US employers added 818,000 fewer jobs (30%) than estimated for the 12 months ended in March, but second quarter growth was up 3.0%. Central banks are moving rates or considering doing so, including the US Federal Reserve.

The economy remains resilient, but data signals a deceleration; China followed earlier moves by the Central Bank of Brazil, and the European Central Bank by easing monetary policy, cutting rates twice in a month.

The ECB cuts rates by 25 basis points as other central banks hold; economic survey respondents remain cautious amid global uncertainty and expect more cuts; and the EU adds tariffs on China EVs.

Central banks largely hold interest rates, with inflation still above target; freight rates are expected to spike; the US is expected to impose tariffs on multiple imports from China.

Uncertainty continues to dominate the global economy; central banks hold rates in the face of sticky inflation; manufacturing picks up as services continue expansion; trade maintains momentum.

Consumption continues to be resilient, except in Europe; central banks hold interest rates steady due to ongoing inflation risk; business survey respondents show increased confidence in economy.

Global economic uncertainty elevated but consumers upbeat; China faces deflation, real estate problems, and FDI decline; EU growth stagnant; high US interest rates affecting households and companies.

The global economy was more resilient than anticipated in 2023, but there were patchy bright spots; 2024 brings further ambiguity.

2024 looks uncertain: inflation has come down but long-term interest rates remain high; retail sales are relatively stable; manufacturing continues to contract; geopolitical concerns are on the rise.

Elevated interest rates weigh on consumer confidence; central banks hold rates, except in Brazil (down) and Russia (up); inflation subsiding for now and is negative in China; growth subdued in Europe.

The global outlook is unchanged despite weaker readings in trade, consumer confidence, and business activity. Still-elevated inflation and interest rates are acting as headwinds to economic growth.

Some leading indicators improved, though outlook still fragile; confidence stable but consumers lean toward saving; inflation and trade volumes continue downward trend.

Leading indicators show signs of a rebound—will it sustain? Confidence potentially returning but consumers remain cautious; inflation persistent in some countries; trade volumes still declining.

Mixed economic picture with patchy positives; consumers cautious but confidence rising; inflation in developed economies decelerates, while producer prices decline; trade volumes down.

Global executives more positive; consumer confidence improving but low; emerging economies rebound; Fed pauses rate hikes as ECB raises rates by 25 basis points; inflation low in India and Brazil.

Consumers slightly more optimistic as inflation stabilizes; developed economies struggle to maintain GDP momentum in face of headwinds; labor markets tight; China rebound slows; India economy positive.

Inflation remains high while trending down; the International Monetary Fund lowered global growth projections to 2.8% for 2023; US banking sector challenges persist; output indicators in services stay strong.

Some economic indicators strengthen amid persisting inflation and investor uncertainty; central banks keep to a tightening course.

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GDP forecasts improve; central banks sustain inflation battle amid cost-of-living crisis; China further eases pandemic restrictions, noting risks.

Industry and consumer activity sags under weight of inflation and higher interest rates; forecasting institutions trim GDP growth projections for 2023.

Growth rebounds in the United States and China; eurozone inflation reaches new heights as tightening continues; energy, climate reports paint a sober picture.

Central banks sustain aggressive policy tightening; industrial activity picks up in emerging economies; financial-markets uncertainty works to strengthen the dollar.

Growth moderates globally in an inflationary environment; the US Federal Reserve emphasizes its tightening course; Europe faces near-term energy volatility.

High energy prices stoke inflation; central banks chart tightening course; supply challenges persist and industry struggles to meet demand.

Amid high inflation, a pandemic, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, surveyed economies display considerable resilience; trade is strong, and manufacturing and services continue to expand moderately.

Industry slowed in January amid high inflation and recent pandemic measures; trade remained buoyant; the Russian government’s invasion of Ukraine is causing a humanitarian crisis and economic risks.

Industry and trade in goods grow on strong consumer demand; the pandemic wave, inflation, and geopolitical tensions present risks to faster growth in 2022.

Industry indicators are broadly positive alongside persisting inflation; pandemic restrictions return to Europe; nations recommit to ambitious climate goals.

With rising vaccination rates, surveyed economies are reopening more fully; industry and trade are expanding despite the pandemic’s knock-on effects.

Rapid growth and strong demand bump against pandemic-related disruptions; energy prices surge, but long-term inflation expectations remain moderate.

Industrial activity strengthens and consumer demand returns while inflation accelerates; the pandemic wave worsens significantly

As the global economy emerges from the worst of the pandemic, strong growth returns, accompanied by inflation.

Amid the agonies of a second pandemic year, the recovery gathers further momentum; business leaders and policy makers ponder rising inflation.

A broad economic recovery continues to gather momentum—but against a backdrop of pandemic resurgence and a national crisis in India.

Amid a resurging pandemic, the economic recovery accelerates, pushed forward by demand and output from China and the United States.

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