Uncertainty looms in the latest McKinsey Global Survey on economic conditions, say Senior Partner Sven Smit and coauthors. Trade policy changes and geopolitical instability are now seen as the primary disruptors. Geopolitical risks have dominated survey respondents’ focus for the past three years, but concerns related to trade issues have surged and are now on par with geopolitics. In fact, over the past six months, the share of respondents citing trade-related changes as a major disruption to the global economy has more than doubled.
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A line chart displays the biggest potential risks to global economic growth over the next 12 months, as perceived by respondents in McKinsey Global Surveys on economic conditions from June 2024 to March 2025. The data is presented as the percentage of respondents citing each risk, across 4 survey periods: June 2024, September 2024, December 2024, and March 2025. The chart tracks 5 key risks: geopolitical instability and/or conflicts, changes in trade policy and/or relationships, transitions of political leadership, increased economic volatility, and inflation.
Geopolitical instability and/or conflicts was cited by ~65% of respondents in June 2024, slightly decreased to ~66% in September 2024, declined to ~60% in December 2024, and under 60% in March 2025.
Changes in trade policy and/or relationships started at ~23% in June 2024, remained at that level in September 2024, rose to 50% in December 2024, and increased slightly further to just below 60% in March 2025.
Transitions of political leadership began at approximately 30% in June 2024, increased to around 34% in September 2024, slightly decreased to 32% in December 2024, and then fell to about 22% in March 2025.
Increased economic volatility started at 11% in June 2024, increased to 17% in September 2024, decreased to 12% in December 2024, and increased to 21% by March 2025.
Finally, inflation began at ~24% in June 2024, declined to 19% in September 2024 and December 2024, then slightly rose to approximately 22% by March 2025.
Note: This image description was completed with the assistance of Writer, a gen AI tool.
Source: McKinsey Global Surveys on economic conditions, 2024–25.
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To read the survey, see “Economic conditions outlook, March 2025,” March 28, 2025.